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    Çalışmalarınızı "Yazım ve Yayın İlkeleri" çerçevesinde Dergipark adresimizden yükleyiniz.

    DUYURU 2

    Dergimizin haziran sayısı editörlüğünü Hacettepe Üniversitesi'nden Prof. Dr. Emine YILMAZ yapmaktadır.



One of the factors affecting the current account deficit is oil prices for the Economy of Turkey, which has been faced with chronic current account deficit problem for years. Therefore, the course of oil prices which is generally determined by the factors other than our country, is quite decisive in shaping the current account deficit of Turkey. In this study, the effect of volatility in oil prices on current account deficit is analyzed with ARCH, GARCH and TVTP-MS models for the Economy of Turkey. In this context, monthly data of the current account deficit and oil prices are analyzed in three different periods of time: 2003-2008 pre-crisis, 2010-2018 post-crisis and 2003-2018 all the period. The relationship between the volatility in oil prices and the current account deficit is examined by setting up different models for every period of time. According to the results obtained, the linear model (GARCH) is suitable for the pre-crisis period; but for the the post-crisis period it has been established in accordance with TVTP-MS model since it does not show a linear structure. As for the all time period (2003-2018) TVTP-MS model is suitable. According to the results, the volatility in oil prices in the pre-crisis period affects the current account deficit. According to the model that is established for the post-crisis period and where the regime switching can be tested, the current account deficit was affected in the case of low volatility in oil prices, while there was no significant relationship to the current account in the transition to high volatility. The model, which is based on all period data, shows that two periods lagged oil price volatility effects current account deficits negatively.

Current Account Deficit, Oil Price Volatility, Time Varying Transition Probabilities For Markov Regi

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