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Abstract


TESTİNG OF THE WAGNER’S LAW: EVİDENCE FROM KAZAKHSTAN ECONOMY
Relationship between government spending and economic growth has been mentioned for a long period of time in economics literature. Relationship between government spending and economic growth is explained by two opinions in theoretical aspect. These opinions belong to A. Wagner and J. M. Keynes. According to Wagner Law, way of relationship of causality is from economic growth to government spending, and it is stated that increase in total government spending is brought together by increasing government spending items caused by developing and altering social necessities generated by increased welfare through economic growth. Wagner’s views, which draws attention to increased government spending caused by economic growth, are accepted as starting point of theoretical works on relationship between government spending and economic growth. Keynes hypothesis state that increase in government spending bring about economic growth and reveal causality relation as from government spending to economic growth. In this study, the relationship between government spending and economic growth is evaluated in the framework of Wagner Law and Keynes Hypothesis through demonstrating improvements in public spending in Kazakhstan economy in the period of 1991-2015. As a result of the analysis using the nonlinear autoregressive distributed lags (NARDL) model, it is concluded that Wagner Law is valid in Kazakhstan economy. An important issue as a policy proposal within the framework of the study is related to the areas where public expenditures will be allocated. Considering that production based on natural resources such as oil and natural gas has an important share in the total production, especially Dutch disease and middle income trap are likely to occur. When this situation is taken into consideration, the areas where public expenditures will be realized should be determined correctly. Especially considering that today's economic structure is knowledge economy, resources should be transferred to related fields within this framework. Therefore, more resources should be allocated to R & D, education and information and communication technologies.

Keywords
Government Spending, Wagner Law, Keynes Hypothesis, NARDL


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