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Abstract


THE LONG-RUN RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN THE UNEMPLOYMENT RATE and THE LABOUR FORCE PARTICIPATION RATE: TURKISH CASE
The fact that there is a long-run equilibrium relationship between the unemployment rate (UR) and the labour force participation rate (LFPR) may prevent the unemployment rate statistics from reflecting general state of the economy and labour markets correctly. Moreover, an existence of this kind of relationship, may also prevent countries which have high unemployment rates such as Turkey to decrease their unemployment rates to desired levels. In this study the long-run relationship between the UR and the LFPR for Turkish economy is investigated by Johansen (1988, 1991) cointegration method using both general and sex-related series. This study uses monthly data and covers the 2005:01-2019:04 period. Distinguishing features of this study from other studies are as follows: Firstly a great care is taken about the relevance of the statistical properties of the Vector Autoregression (VAR) models, which cointegration analysis is based upon. Although this feature is very important for relevance of the both statistical analysis and economic interpretations (Juselius, 2006, s. 46), it is generally seen disregarded in the related literature. Secondly, in order to preserve the true information of the data some procedures such as collecting data from different sources which have different frequencies, interpolation or applying some mechanical seasonal adjustment techniques to all series are not applied. Test results show that there is a no cointegration relationship between the UR and the LFPR for both general and sex-related series. This finding does not support the idea that unemployment rate of the Turkish economy does not reflect the general state of the economy because of the movements of the LFPR. Also this finding does not support the idea that one reason of the unability of decreasing unemployment rate of the Turkish economy is the movements of the LFPR either.

Keywords
Unemployment Rate, Labour Force Participation Rate, VAR Model, Turkey, Time Series, Cointegration


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