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Abstract


EXPORTS-IMPORTS RELATIONSHIP IN EMERGING ECONOMIES: A PANEL CAUSALITY ANALYSIS
Current developing countries which are expected to reach maturity and become leading economies of the future are called as “emerging economies”. Emerging economies are those economies which display increasing interaction with the global market, strengthening liberal economies and rapid growth. Increasing production and consumption in emerging economies due to rapid development also increases the importance of these countries as significant export economies and import markets. On the other hand, since such countries are still developing countries, they may rely on imports of capital goods for sustaining production, a situation that may consequently result in current account deficits. The primary aim of this study is to investigate whether exports depend on imports in emerging economies. In this respect, causality analysis is carried out in a panel consisting of eighteen emerging economies for the period 1967-2016. Panel causality tests developed by Dumitrescu and Hurlin (2012) and Emirmahmutoglu and Kose (2011) are used in the analyses. The analysis is repeated for the period 1989-2016, during which globalization was accelerating, for a new panel of twenty countries formed by adding Russia and Vietnam. The results of the analysis suggest that the direction of causality between exports and imports varies in the studied countries and that it changed in some countries in the period which globalization was accelerating. According to the results of the analysis, it can be inferred that exports depend on imports in Brazil, China, Philippines, South Africa and Turkey in the period 1967-2016, while imports depend on exports in Bangladesh, Chile, Colombia, India, Mexico, Nigeria and Thailand in the same period, and bidirectional causality between exports and imports in Iran. There is no evidence of any causality between exports and imports in the remaining of the panel.

Keywords
Emerging economies, Exports, Imports, Panel causality


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